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Pennsylvania Will Undergo Severe Economic and Employment Challenges Under Senate’s Proposed Better Care Reconciliation Act

July 07, 2017

This week, The Commonwealth Fund released an economic and employment assessment of the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA) on the United States. According to the study, enactment of the BCRA would lead to nearly 110,000 jobs lost in Pennsylvania by 2026 and more than $19 billion lost in business output.

Compared to the American Health Care Act (AHCA) analysis, Pennsylvania first-year positive gains in employment and business output in the recent BCRA analysis are less than the AHCA. The BCRA analysis suggests 8,000 less jobs and $1.5 billion less in business output than the AHCA in the first year. Both analysis indicate major economic losses for the Commonwealth. The growing uninsured population and reductions in support for health insurance will lead to substantial economic consequences.

Pennsylvania will see a much more severe impact to its business and employment economies than nearly all other states. For example, Pennsylvania is one of eight states that will see more than 2,000 job losses in health care beginning next year, where other states will see job losses in health care beginning in 2019 or later.

Source: The Commonwealth Fund

The Commonwealth Fund estimates that Pennsylvania will see a growth in employment in 2018. Beginning in 2020, Pennsylvania would see a significant decrease in jobs every year through 2026.

By 2026, Pennsylvania stands to lose 110,000 jobs.

Health employment in Pennsylvania will see a decline immediately. By 2026, more than one out of every two jobs lost (57%) will come from the health employment market.

By 2026, Pennsylvania stands to lose 62,800 health employment jobs.

Business output for Pennsylvania will decline due to the AHCA. Commonwealth Fund expects that there will be a growth in business output for Pennsylvania for the first two years, but a negative output for the following seven.

By 2026, Pennsylvania stands to lose more than $19 billion in business output.

HAP and the Pennsylvania hospitals and health systems continue to promote health insurance coverage for all Pennsylvanians. To date, the Affordable Care Act provisions have supported more than 1.1 million Pennsylvanians with health insurance coverage, providing better access to high quality health care services and dramatically reducing the uninsured population of Pennsylvania. HAP continues to provide resources on the effects of the Affordable Care Act in Pennsylvania on its website.

For more information about the importance on the Commonwealth Fund study, please contact Phillip Burrell, director, health market research.

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